A Water War Between Afghanistan and Pakistan

In the next 5 to 10 years, there’s a chance we could see a serious conflict over water between Afghanistan and Pakistan. While a big war between India and Pakistan seems unlikely due to their nuclear weapons and international pressure, the situation between Afghanistan and Pakistan is different. With no strong peace agreement in place and serious water problems, a small war or major fight could actually happen.

Both Countries Are Running Out of Water Fast

Afghanistan and Pakistan are both struggling with severe water shortages. The Taliban-led Afghan government has decided to build dams on rivers that currently flow into Pakistan. These dams will help supply water for Afghan people, farming, and electricity. But this means less water for Pakistan, which could harm crops and everyday life there.

Taliban General Says: "Water Is Our Blood"

Taliban General Says - Water Is Our Blood

In a recent video, Taliban army general Mubin said, Water is like blood for us. We can’t let our blood flow out of our bodies. He was stressing how critical water is for Afghanistan. His words are similar to what Bilawal Bhutto once said about India and the Indus River— showing how emotional and serious water issues have become.

Why Is the Indus Waters Treaty Still Suspended?

Pakistan often says it’s doing well in its conflicts, but if that’s true, why hasn’t the Indus Waters Treaty been restarted? The treaty controls how much water India sends to Pakistan. But it’s still suspended, and India is holding back water. That shows Pakistan is already feeling the pressure of reduced supply.

The Kunar River Could Trigger Conflict

The Kunar River begins in Afghanistan and flows into Pakistan, joining the Kabul River and later the Indus River. This river is very important for Pakistan, especially for farming in Sindh. If Afghanistan builds a dam on this river, it could cut off a vital water source.

Dams from Both Sides: A Threat to Pakistan

Pakistan faces water pressure from two sides—India is building dams on the Indus River, and Afghanistan is planning dams on rivers like Kunar. If both sides limit water flow, Pakistan might face severe shortages and may feel it has no choice but to consider war, especially with Afghanistan.

India’s Role in Afghan Infrastructure

India recently resumed diplomatic contact with the Taliban. Foreign Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar tweeted about these talks, and now India may restart development projects in Afghanistan, including dams like the Salma Dam, also known as the India-Afghanistan Friendship Dam.

Salma Dam: A Symbol of Peace and Partnership

Salma Dam

The Salma Dam was built by India on the Hari River. It’s not only useful for water and power but also a symbol of friendship. Even after the Taliban took over, the Indian and old Afghan flags on the dam were not removed. It shows respect for the cooperation between the two nations.

Shahtoot Dam: Pakistan’s Red Line

Indian Help To Build Shahtoot Dam

India also plans to build the Shahtoot Dam near Kabul, which will provide clean water to over 2 million people in Afghanistan. The project will cost around $36 million, and Pakistan has warned that this dam would be seen as an act of war.

Media Calls It India’s “Silent Weapon”

International news outlets say the Shahtoot Dam could be India’s next strategic move against Pakistan. Some Pakistani military analysts have even warned that if this dam is built, Pakistan might retaliate militarily. The same warnings have been made about the Kunar River dam.

Could There Be a War Between the Two?

A real war over water between Pakistan and Afghanistan is now looking possible. Afghanistan has a smaller army and less population, but it has the right to use its own water. Afghanistan is already suffering from serious water shortages, and it needs dams to survive.

Afghanistan Has Less Farmland Than Most Countries

Afghanistan also has very little land available for farming. This is called arable land. In comparison, India is number one, followed by the USA and China. Pakistan is ranked 16th, while Afghanistan is far behind at 36th. This means Afghanistan must protect its water and land carefully if it wants to grow food and feed its people.

Final Thoughts: The Next Big War Might Be Over Water

The world is changing. With climate change, population growth, and bad water management, water could become the main reason for wars. The situation between Pakistan and Afghanistan is getting worse. If they don’t find peace soon, the next big war in South Asia might not be about land or politics, but about something we all need: water.